New poll finds Trump drawing substantial 'likely' support from Democrats, minority voters in 2024

October 11, 2023
Ben Marquis

Former President Donald Trump has increasingly claimed that he alone is particularly situated among the field of Republican presidential candidates to defeat President Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch of the 2020 election.

Trump now has another major poll that seemingly supports that assertion, as it found that the former president would prevail over the incumbent president with 53% support in the general election, according to the Washington Examiner.

Furthermore, that poll also found, likely much to Biden's humiliating dismay, that Trump could garner the support in 2024 of up to 30% of Democratic voters and perhaps even a slim majority of minority voters.

Latest poll shows majority "likely" to vote for Trump

Those findings came from the latest survey from Rasmussen Reports, which queried 1,032 likely voters between Oct. 2-4, with a margin of error of 3%, and asked a series of questions about the 2024 presidential race.

One of those questions was "How likely are you to vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election?" In response, around 30% of Democratic voters, and 50% of black voters, said that it was "somewhat" or "very" likely that they would cast a vote for Trump in next year's general election.

Overall, the poll found that 53% said they were likely to vote for Trump in 2024, including 38% who were "very likely" to do so, compared with 43% who said they were unlikely to vote for the former president, including 34% who said they were "not at all likely" to vote in support of Trump returning to the White House for a second term in office.

Trump drawing significant support from unexpected groups

"Eighty percent of Republicans are likely to vote for Trump in 2024, including 64% who are 'Very Likely' to vote for him," the Rasmussen pollsters said, according to the Examiner. "Perhaps surprisingly, however, 30% of Democrats also say they’re at least somewhat likely to vote for Trump in next year’s presidential election."

"Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 50% are at least somewhat likely to vote for Trump in 2024, including 32% who say it’s 'Very Likely' they’ll vote for the former president next year," they continued.

"Majorities of every racial category -- 53% of whites, 50% of black voters, and 52% of other minorities -- say they’re at least somewhat likely to vote for Trump in 2024," the pollsters added of the unexpected results. "Twenty-five percent of black Trump voters say they would be more likely to vote for him if he picked a black running mate."

Multiple polls now show Trump with an edge over Biden

This latest Rasmussen poll has not yet been included in the RealClearPolitics average of 2024 general election polls that ask respondents who they'd vote for in a hypothetical rematch between presumptive nominees Biden and Trump -- yet the RCP average currently shows Trump with a one-point lead over Biden, 45.1-44.1%.

The Rasmussen poll is certainly not alone in suggesting that Trump would defeat Biden, as the RCP average does include several other polls that show the former president with a lead over his incumbent rival.

That includes a recent The Messenger/HarrisX poll that had Trump up by four points, 45-41%; a New York Post poll with Trump ahead by three, 44-41%; a Marquette University survey that also had Trump up three points, 51-48%; and a poll from The Washington Post that showed Trump with a 10 point lead over Biden, 52-42%.

A word of caution on hypothetical polls

To be sure, the 2024 general election is still more than a year away, the primary elections have not yet even begun, and for a variety of issues -- Trump's mounting legal woes and Biden's increasingly deteriorating physical and mental health, to say nothing of other controversies and scandals involving both men -- nobody can say for certain that either Trump or Biden will actually end up being their respective party's presidential nominee.

That said, assuming that both men do ultimately end up being the 2024 nominees, it sure looks like Trump could take back the White House and, if Rasmussen's findings are accurate, will have a sizeable portion of Democrats and minorities who previously voted for Biden to thank for the victory.

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