Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's newly appointed supreme leader, failed to appear at his own succession rally in Tehran on Monday. Thousands gathered at Enghelab Square to celebrate his appointment, and the man they came to honor was represented by a portrait. Just a portrait. One that was half the size of the one displayed for his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

State media footage of the event confirmed the absence. No explanation was offered. The new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran has yet to be spotted in public since the war with the US and Israel began.

A Ghost at His Own Coronation

According to the New York Post, the portrait of the dead leader took up the center of the stage while his son's smaller image hung nearby, a visual hierarchy that told the story better than any analyst could. The regime staged the rally. The crowds showed up. The supreme leader did not.

Khosro Isfahani, the research director for the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), offered a blunt assessment of what's going on:

"It's either he's out cold in a hospital, or he's scared and hiding in the deepest bunker they have after seeing his dad be turned into red mist."

Isfahani told The Post that Khamenei lacks public support and was only appointed to the position because of pressure from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC needed a figurehead. They got one who won't leave his bunker.

Isfahani's most memorable line deserves its full airing:

"He has the charisma of a boiled potato."

Observers speculate that Mojtaba is either wounded or hiding out in fear. Neither option inspires confidence in a regime that styles itself as a divinely ordained revolutionary state. Supreme leaders are supposed to project strength. This one projects absence.

The Real Power Players Are Happy to Wait

The more interesting story may not be who's missing, but who's watching. Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is widely viewed as the most powerful man in Iran following the ayatollah's death at the start of the war. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf leads the other major faction. Together, they represent the two poles of Iranian power politics.

Neither seems particularly bothered by Mojtaba's installation. According to Isfahani, they see it as a strategic gift:

"Those two want to sit this out and are happy to see Mojtaba be the one to beat his chest and take the reins."

In other words, Larijani and Ghalibaf are content to let Khamenei's son absorb the incoming fire while they position themselves for whatever comes next. Isfahani put it plainly:

"Mojtaba is irrelevant, and they see it as a short-term appointment because it's not going to last very long."

That framing matters. When the people closest to power inside a regime view the new supreme leader as a temporary placeholder, the regime is not projecting strength. It is managing decline.

Trump Sees Through It

President Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran not to pick a leader without seeking his approval first, specifically naming Khamenei an "unacceptable" candidate. The regime installed him anyway, and Trump responded with characteristic directness.

"They are wasting their time. Khamenei's son is a lightweight."

He added that the new leader was "not going to last long."

That assessment lines up almost perfectly with what Isfahani and other analysts are saying from the opposition side. When the American president and Iranian opposition researchers reach the same conclusion independently, it's not spin. It's pattern recognition.

Larijani has reportedly been recently threatening President Trump, though no details of those threats have been made public. Whatever leverage Iran's security council believes it holds, the spectacle in Enghelab Square didn't strengthen its hand.

A Regime Running on Fumes

There's a particular kind of weakness that authoritarian regimes cannot survive: the kind everyone can see. Democracies absorb embarrassment. Strongman states cannot. When the supreme leader of Iran skips his own rally, every faction inside the country recalculates. Every ally reconsiders. Every enemy takes note.

The IRGC pushed Mojtaba Khamenei into the role because they needed continuity. They needed the Khamenei name on the door. What they got instead is a leader who:

• Has not appeared in public since the war began
• Was absent from his own succession celebration
• Is viewed by Iran's own political elite as a short-term placeholder
• Has been dismissed by the President of the United States as a "lightweight"

The regime held a coronation. The king didn't show. The portrait was smaller than his father's. The factions that actually run the country are already looking past him.

Tehran filled a square. It couldn't fill a throne.