President Donald Trump leads Democratic nominee Joe Biden by eight points — 49% to 41% — in Maine’s Second Congressional District, according to a poll from the Bangor Daily News, as reported by Breitbart.
This is particularly noteworthy as Maine, unlike most states, divvies up a portion of its Electoral College votes based on which candidate wins the individual congressional districts. In a close election, those singular electoral votes could mean all the difference between a win or a loss.
That said, the poll had a small sample size — 234 likely voters out of 500 registered voters — and a large margin of error around 6.2%.
Trump surges to lead in Maine district
Conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 4 by the Portland, Maine-based polling firm Digital Research/Critical Insights, the poll’s main takeaway is that regardless of party affiliation, all of the incumbent politicians were favored to win in the 2nd District.
Those results included President Trump, Sen. Susan Collins (R), and Rep. Jared Golden (D).
Trump 49% (+8)
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 6, 2020
The president’s eight-point lead in this poll of Maine’s 2nd District — which he won by more than 10 points in 2016 — is his best result in the district in this election cycle and a substantial shift from the one-point lead held by Biden in the firm’s previous poll of the district in August.
RealClearPolitics average shows statistical tie
In spite of Trump’s solid lead in the 2nd District, he trails the former vice president by nine points statewide — 50-41% — and is losing by a significant margin in the deep-blue 1st District, 62-30%, according to the poll.
Should these results hold true on Election Day, Maine’s four electoral votes — one each for the two congressional districts and two senators — would be split, with Biden taking three to Trump’s one. That one vote could be crucial if the Electoral College count is close.
With regard to the relatively small sample size and substantial lead for Trump in the 2nd District, this particular poll may be an outlier.
The RealClearPolitics average currently has the race in the 2nd District in a statistical dead heat, with Trump edging out Biden 45.5% to 45.3%.
This race in the 2nd District will certainly be one to watch closely on Election Night as it has the potential to play a deciding role in the overall election.