Trump sets expectations for a large and 'powerful' margin of victory in Iowa caucus

 December 15, 2023

It is now just one month until Republicans cast their votes in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus on January 15, and if the polls are correct, former President Donald Trump should have little trouble winning that opening contest in the 2024 GOP primary.

Yet, it appears that simply winning the Iowa caucus will not be enough to satisfy Trump, as he recently expressed his desire to defeat his rival candidates with an overwhelming margin of victory, according to NBC News.

The setting of such "lofty expectations" for Iowa is potentially a double-edged sword, however, for while it could motivate his supporters to deliver him a dominating win and momentum going into the rest of the primary elections, a sharp underperformance in the state -- to say nothing of a surprise loss -- would be a nightmare for his campaign and shift that coveted momentum over to his GOP rivals.

Trump seeking a massive and "powerful" Iowa caucus margin of victory

NBC News reported that former President Trump held a campaign event in Coralville, Iowa on Wednesday and shared with his supporters a recent conversation he had with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird, who has endorsed him, about the importance of securing a large margin of victory in the state.

Bird, who took the stage ahead of the frontrunning candidate, told the attendees that the record for the biggest winning margin in Republican caucus history was 12 percentage points, and said to the crowd, "We need to beat that. We need Donald Trump to set the record for the biggest win in Iowa history."

Later, as Trump recalled his earlier conversation with Bird, he emphasized, "That margin of victory is so, so powerful."

"Brenna was telling me before, she said, 'Sir, you’ve got to say something about it, because you are leading by a lot. And sometimes when you’re leading by a lot, everyone says, 'Oh, why should I go and vote?'" he added.

Polls show Trump up by 30 over rivals in Iowa

Former President Trump is indeed "leading by a lot" in Iowa, as the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the Hawkeye State currently shows him holding a 3o-plus point lead over his closest rival.

Trump has approximately 50% support from Iowa Republicans in comparison to 19.3% support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, followed closely by former U.N.Ambassador Nikki Haley in third with 16.7% and all other remaining candidates mired in the single digits.

NBC News noted that the Trump campaign isn't taking that substantial lead for granted, though, or at least not senior adviser Jason Miller, who told the outlet, "It doesn’t matter if we’re ahead by more than 30 points over 'DeSanctimonius' and Nikki Haley, we’re going to run as if we were tied."

Race essentially over before it even started

Of course, Iowa is far from being the only state where former President Trump has a massive lead over his rivals ahead of the 2024 primary elections, which has led to an ABC News op-ed that suggested that the entire Republican primary race would, for all intents and purposes, be over just as soon as it officially gets underway.

That is because, barring any "historically unforeseen event" -- such as the frontrunner dropping out, or perhaps being convicted and imprisoned -- Trump is already the GOP's unofficial nominee for the 2024 election, and likely has been since even before he formally launched his campaign.

According to RCP's average of national GOP primary polls, the former president garners around 61% support from voters, which gives him a nearly 49-point edge over Gov. DeSantis with just 12.4% and former Ambassador Haley with 11.9%.

Presuming that the polls are at least somewhat accurate and Trump's leads hold in Iowa and the other early-voting primary states, Trump will essentially be the Republican nominee long before he is officially designated as such at the party's nominating convention in July.

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