In 2016, Donald Trump carried Arizona along his Election Night path to a surprising victory — despite opposition from both of the state’s Republican senators.
Ahead of his re-election bid, President Trump has consistently trailed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in polls of Arizona voters, but that trend appears to be changing, as reported by Breitbart.
Improvement among Hispanics
The incumbent is neck-and-neck with the former vice president in the latest Susquehanna Polling and Research results, bolstering earlier evidence that Biden’s once-commanding lead is dwindling.
Though polls continue to vary widely, the president has generally cut into his rival’s lead at every turn over the past several months. The latest survey, which was conducted at the direction of the Center of American Greatness, included 500 respondents in Arizona.
Similar polls in both Florida and Nevada showed a similar phenomenon of increased support for Trump, Breitbart notes.
Among the most notable demographic numbers is the increase in support for Trump among Hispanic voters. With approval from 40% among that bloc, the president is polling nine points higher than his performance in 2016.
The Arizona U.S. Senate race is also tight, according to the latest results, though Democratic challenger Mark Kelly held a three-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 29, 2020
Trump’s odds improve
While Trump needs to win some combination of several swing states to earn a second term, Arizona is one that appears to be shifting in his favor.
As polling firm FiveThirtyEight noted, Trump remains an “underdog” in the race, but has a 25% chance of winning a second term due to the nature of the Electoral College. In terms of the popular vote, however, the outlet placed Trump’s chances of beating Biden at just 1 in 10.
Although early voting has already begun across much of the country, there is still plenty of time for the numbers to move even more.
It remains to be seen what impact, if any, presidential debates and other campaign factors might have on the race. Regardless of the outcome, it seems this election will not result in the landslide victory some Biden supporters have predicted.