With the balance of power and majority control of the Senate in the next Congress still up for grabs, all eyes are on the pair of Senate runoff races in Georgia that are scheduled to be held on Jan. 5, 2021, involving incumbent Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler versus Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock, respectively.
In welcome news for Republicans, one of the more accurate pollsters of the recent election cycle, Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, is predicting that Loeffler will defeat Warnock with some ease. However, he did not share that same level of confidence for Perdue’s chances to defeat Ossoff.
Loeffler doing better than Perdue
Cahaly told the Washington Examiner, “We see the Warnock-Loeffler race as one that will be less close. We feel more confident that Loeffler is going to probably prevail.”
“We feel more confident that the other one is going to be closer,” he added in reference to the Ossoff-Perdue race.
According to Trafalgar’s most recent polling, which involved surveying 1,064 likely Georgia voters between Dec. 14-16, with a margin of error of less than 3 percent, the two Republicans held the lead over their Democratic challengers, though Loeffler’s lead was about twice as much as that of Perdue.
Factoring in respondents who simply “lean” toward a particular candidate along with those who were committed, Perdue led Ossoff by a margin of 50.2-47.5 percent while Loeffler led Warnock by a count of 52.2-45.5 percent.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) December 19, 2020
Other polls differ
The Examiner noted that, as before the Nov. 3 elections, Trafalgar’s polling appears to be something of an outlier in comparison to the findings of other pollsters.
For example, FiveThirtyEight‘s analysis and average of the various polls on the Georgia Senate runoff races shows that Perdue has a 0.5 percent lead over Ossoff while Loeffler trails Warnock by 0.6 percent, as of Dec. 24.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics average of polls, as of Dec. 22, showed Perdue with a 1 percent lead over Ossoff and Warnock with a 2 percent lead over Loeffler.
Controversial sermons and “woke” attacks
Cahaly pointed to two separate things that, in his view, are playing substantially with voters that may not have been picked up on by the other pollsters, the first of which is how Warnock is being hit hard with negative ads and media reports regarding controversial statements he has made over the years from the pulpit.
Another factor is how both Perdue and Loeffler have gone on the record as being in support of the Atlanta Braves nickname — now under threat by the politically correct “woke” mob — that puts them in line with roughly 73 percent of all Georgians, while both Ossoff and Warnock have declined to state publicly where they stand on whether the Braves, like other professional sports teams named in honor of Native Americans, should be forced to choose a new mascot and nickname.