Republicans have a majority in the Senate, but that majority could be even thinner, or lost, if the latest trend of Republican senators not seeking reelection in 2026 continues.
According to the New York Post, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) made the bombshell announcement this week that she's no longer interested in seeking reelection next year, leaving a swing state Senate seat much more vulnerable, presumably, than the Republican Party would like it to be.
Ernst joins a growing list of Republicans who aren't seeking reelection next year, giving some up-and-coming Republicans a chance but also decreasing the overall odds of the party keeping the majority in the upper chamber.
The Iowa Republican fell out of favor with MAGA supporters earlier this year after she initially fought back against the nomination of Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary.
Ernst reportedly broke the news to some of her inner circle, who spoke anonymously about her decision to throw in the towel before the 2026 election.
BREAKING: Republican Senator Joni Ernst will not run for reelection. pic.twitter.com/dADqOKMOvA
— Ian Jaeger (@IanJaeger29) August 29, 2025
The news immediately sparked a race for new Republicans interested in taking her place, as CBS News noted.
Some Iowa Democrats have already jumped into the race, including state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, and Des Moines School Board chairwoman Jackie Norris.
The Republican senator has long hinted about her lack of desire to stay in the game, but vowed earlier this year at a talk that the state would stay in Republican control.
"Every day we get a new Democratic member of the House or Senate that decides to run for this Senate seat — bring it on," Ernst said at a meeting of the Westside Conservative Club. "Bring it on, folks. Because I tell you, at the end of the day, Iowa is going to be red."
CBS News added:
White House officials had hoped Ernst would run again, instead of joining other Republicans who are leaving the Senate, including North Carolina's Thom Tillis, Alabama's Tommy Tuberville and Kentucky's Mitch McConnell.
Users across social media commented on the news of Ernst dropping out.
"Yassssss! Another RINO gone without having to primary her! Now do Grassley!!! Iowa, haven't we suffered enough?" one X user wrote.
Another X user wrote, "RINOs dropping like flies. Tillis and Ernst are out. Cornyn is toast. All we need to do is ditch Thune and we might see actual change."
It'll be interesting to see who ultimately prevails in the race to replace her.
