House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is in trouble.
Upcoming redistricting by Republican-controlled state legislatures could make it even more unlikely that Pelosi and the Democrats will be able to hold onto their House majority in 2022, Breitbart reported.
As Breitbart noted, although Democrats did score some high-level wins in the 2020 election, including the presidency, they actually failed in many lower-level races. And, it’s those lower-level races that could now cost them, because it’s the state legislatures that have the power to redraw state legislative and congressional districts.
Several Republican state legislatures are expected to redistrict their states in a way that would be favorable to Republicans.
In New Hampshire, Republicans control almost the entire state, including the state House, Senate, and governorship, yet the state is represented in the U.S. House by two Democrats: Reps. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH).
According to a report from Politico, New Hampshire Republicans are expected to target Pappas’ district in particular, which he won by 5 percentage points over Republican opponent and former Trump administration official Matt Mowers. “I already serve in a Republican district, and they’re already talking about making it even more Republican,” Pappas told the outlet.
Georgia districts represented by Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA) and Rep. Lucy McBeth’s (D-GA) are likely also to be targeted by Republicans, according to Breitbart.
Democrats currently hold a 218 to 212 majority in the House, meaning that in order for the Republicans to take back the chamber, they need to net six seats.
At the moment, it would appear that the cards are stacked in their favor.
A particularly tough blow for Democrats came with the Census Bureau’s most recent report, which found that there has been population shifts away from Democratic states to Republican states.
There has been so much of a population change, in fact, that several Democratic states are losing a seat in the House of Representatives, including California and New York. This, of course, will also cost the states an Electoral College vote, since both House representation and Electoral College votes are based on a state’s population.
If everything continues on this track, and President Joe Biden continues to under-perform as president, it certainly appears that Republicans have a good chance at winning back the House majority in 2022.