Based on historical trends alone, President Joe Biden was already on track to lose control of Congress to Republicans, and his poor performance as president thus far only seems to further confirm that that is exactly what will happen in the 2022 midterm elections.
In fact, one pollster is now predicting that Biden’s Democrats stand to lose at least 41 seats in House next November, the Washington Examiner reported.
That is the same number of seats former President Donald Trump and his Republicans lost to the Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections and is 34 more seats than the minimum necessary for the GOP to regain control of the lower chamber.
History might repeat
The prediction comes from Public Opinion Strategies and was based on the results of its survey of 800 voters nationwide between Sept. 1-8 with a margin of error of approximately 3.5%. The pollsters found that in terms of approval/disapproval ratings, Biden’s current numbers were almost exactly the same as Trump’s at the same early point in his presidency.
“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s déjà vu all over again,” POS pollster Glen Bolger explained. “Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings, are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 mid-term elections when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats.”
“I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats, because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment,” he added.
Though there are a number of factors weighing down Biden’s approval — the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, the border crisis chaos, excessive federal spending plans, and the COVID-19 pandemic — the mess in Afghanistan appears to be the biggest drag on Biden’s numbers, and by extension, Democratic chances for victory next year.
Bolger said, “Biden’s failures there are viewed as a metaphor for weakness, which, more than any one foreign policy problem, can carry over to his inability to be a strong leader.”
Similar poll results
The findings appear similar to those of the pollsters at McLaughlin and Associates, which found in a survey of 1,000 voters between Sept. 9-14 — margin of error undisclosed — that in terms of the “generic ballot” for Congress in 2022, Republicans had a slight advantage over Democrats at this point in time.
“In terms of what to expect for the 2022 midterms, our polling of likely voters suggests that Republicans lead the Democrats in the generic vote for Congress 47%-46% with 7% undecided,” Jim and John McLaughlin said. “This means likely voters are more willing to support a generic group of Republicans rather than a generic group of Democratic candidates for Congress.”
Likwise, the pollsters at Zogby Analytics — which recently found roughly one-fifth of Biden voters now regret their vote — suggested that Republicans are poised to retake both the House and evenly split Senate unless Biden and the Democrats are able to pass their massive infrastructure spending bill and score some additional victories.
“If for some reason they cannot pass a big infrastructure bill, Republicans can focus on a not-so-great economy and Biden’s vaccine mandates, which threaten freedoms and hurt small businesses,” Jonathan Zogby explained. “Overall, it’s close, and I see Republicans with more of an advantage right now to win both chambers — but not by huge amounts.”