Post-jury verdict polling sees Trump lead Biden in polls

 June 20, 2024

In the results published earlier this week, former President Donald Trump appears to be leading current President Joe Biden in Arizona.

The news, which was a surprise to few, stemmed from an independent poll by Rasmussen Reports, not counted by Democrat poll workers, and showed that the former president has a hold on the hearts and votes of Arizonians, according to Breitbart News.

The poll asked respondents, “If the 2024 Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?”

The Results

In a head-to-head comparison, 47 % of prospective voters indicated that they would endorse Trump, while 40 % expressed the same sentiment regarding Biden. This represents a seven-point disparity.

An additional 9% are still undecided. However, it is important to note that independents are evenly divided between Trump and Biden in a head-to-head matchup, with each candidate receiving 39 % of the vote and an additional 17 % remaining uncommitted.

Trump maintains his lead with 41 % support, surpassing Biden's 37 % support, despite the inclusion of third-party candidates such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein.

This represents a four-point disparity. Kennedy receives an additional 10% of the vote, with 2 % going to West and 1% to Stein.

The survey, which was conducted from June 11-13, 2024, among 750 prospective Arizona voters, was conducted long after the Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of all 34 counts in his controversial business records trial. It has a margin of error of +/- 3 %.

Other Polling Results

Several other state-level surveys that examine the race in battleground states, including typically blue areas like Minnesota, show that Trump is edging out Biden after the ruling from the jury.

The results of these polls suggest what many on the Republican side of the aisle have been saying for quite some time: the establishment media's strategy of using lawfare to discredit the former president is ineffective.

For instance, a survey by Mitchell Research and MIRS News looking into the race in Michigan on June 3, a few days after the jury's verdict, revealed that Trump had a 0.6% advantage over Biden in a head-to-head comparison.

How Biden Might Cope

After taking into account the influence of third parties, Trump's lead increased to 1.2%. Biden won the state in 2020 by a margin of less than three percent, so this is a huge development.

In yet another example, a recent Marist Poll conducted after the jury's verdict revealed that Trump was leading Biden in Pennsylvania by two points, with 47% of the vote compared to 45% for Biden.

This is particularly chilling for the Biden campaign when taking into account the historical information that in 2020, Biden only earned a 1.2% victory in the Keystone State.

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