Poll: Vance leads Newsom, AOC, and Buttigieg in early 2028 polls

 July 26, 2025

Vice President JD Vance leads the early polls for the 2028 presidential election against top Democrat contenders, according to Breitbart.

In a hypothetical 2028 election matchup, Vice President JD Vance leads against potential Democratic contenders, as per a recent poll by Emerson College.

Released on Friday, the Emerson College poll showcased matchups where Vice President JD Vance went head-to-head with several key Democratic figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. In these matchups, Vance consistently led: 45% to Newsom's 42%, 44% to Ocasio-Cortez’s 41%, and 44% to Buttigieg's 43%.

Political Landscape and Candidate Popularity

The results highlight Vance’s broad appeal across a diverse electorate, still showing a significant proportion of undecided voters. These undecided segments could play a pivotal role as the election nears.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has been a prominent figure in the Democratic Party, is widely considered to be a potential nominee for the 2028 election. Her impact and appeal among the party's progressive wing have been substantial, as noted by election analysts like Nate Silver.

Ocasio-Cortez's potential candidacy was highlighted by The Hill following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election, emphasizing her significant role within the Democratic fold.

Broader Electoral Context

Pete Buttigieg's political aspirations also indicate shifting dynamics within the Democratic Party, as he has chosen to focus on a potential 2028 presidential run instead of contesting a Senate seat in 2026 in Michigan. His strategies could greatly influence his party's approach in the upcoming election cycle.

Meanwhile, former Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly considering a gubernatorial run in California, signaling perhaps a strategic shift from national to state-level leadership roles within the Democratic ranks.

On the Republican side, JD Vance's dominance at the CPAC straw poll in February, where he outperformed other prominent Republicans such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, underscores his significant support within the party, positioning him as a formidable contender for the presidency.

Implications for Future Campaign Strategies

This early indication of Vance’s potential lead provides critical insights into voter inclinations and sets a foundation for both parties to strategize effectively. It also reflects the challenges the Democrats face in gaining ground against Vance’s early popularity.

As political entities and potential candidates start gearing up for the 2028 elections, the importance of understanding and addressing the concerns of undecided voters becomes more apparent. These voters' decisions could very well determine the next occupant of the White House.

With years still to go before the 2028 polls open, the political landscape is expected to evolve. However, this early data from Emerson College could be a valuable strategic asset for campaigns plotting their course to electoral success.

Continuing Influence of Emerging Political Figures

The potential candidacies of figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg represent shifting ideologies and strategies within the Democratic Party. Their unique positions and previous political roles add layers of complexity to the electoral process, indicating an ongoing transformation within the party itself.

Moreover, the strategic decisions of individuals like Kamala Harris, who may focus on statewide roles, also contribute to reshaping the broader political dialogue and strategic alignments moving towards 2028.

The Emerson poll not only provides a snapshot of current voter preferences but also sparks discussions on future political strategies, voter alignments, and the evolving American political landscape as new leaders emerge and established figures consider their roles.

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