Over the last three weeks, multiple polls began to move in a direction favorable for President Donald Trump.
Even so, many metrics still showed him trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden — but a recently-released Democracy Institute poll found that Trump has pulled ahead of the former vice president both nationally and in key battleground states, as Breitbart reports.
Trump surges, Biden slows
In several recent polls, Trump had finally climbed to within a few points of Biden, but the Democracy Institute survey shows the president holding a 48–46 edge over his rival.
Support among Black Americans is going to make or break Biden, but he will need at least 90% to realistically have a chance of winning this election, and he is currently getting nowhere near that number, with a recent poll showing him at 77% of the vote within that key demographic.
The really bad news for Biden is that his lead in battleground states is also evaporating, with Trump now holding a 48–43 lead in Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa, as Breitbart notes.
So why the sudden burst for Trump? According to pollster Patrick Basham, Biden has simply peaked, and there is no real excitement about his campaign.
“More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden,” he said, according to Breitbart.
There have been two main schools of thought as to why Trump had been struggling to gain traction in the polls in recent months. The first centered on the fact that former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, while overseeing a successful strategy in 2016, was erroneously attempting to utilize similar tactics to re-elect an incumbent president.
A second theory centered on the notion that Trump was simply taking on water over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic and was doing so in part because his daily briefings had stopped, while Democrats were able to lob a series of unanswered attacks on the topic.
Over the last month, both situations have been rectified, new campaign manager Bill Stepien has taken the reins, and Trump has seen a subsequent surge in support.
Stepien has reportedly persuaded Trump to adjust his tone in public and has worked to overhaul the campaign’s spending structure, recently going dark on TV ads in order to evaluate expenditures and relaunch only where the money is likely to be most effective, according to Politico.
As it stands now, Trump is building on several straight weeks of forward momentum, and that may ultimately be too much for Biden to overcome, no matter whom he chooses as a running mate.