With a number of national and battleground-state polls showing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump, one new survey challenges the prevailing forecasts.
The latest Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat ahead of November’s election, as reported by Breitbart.
Many media figures and critics of the president have seized on a series of polls showing Trump struggling against his Democratic rival.
“Tremendous openness about support for Biden”
While some polling companies have faced scrutiny over a perceived bias in their methodologies, the general consensus has been that the incumbent president faces a tough re-election bid.
Pollsters behind the new outlier results, however, believe their efforts are more accurate because they include Trump supporters who supposedly remain hidden in other surveys. They might be right, too, since the model was one of only a few in 2016 to predict Trump’s electoral victory.
Patrick Basham, the founder and executive director of the Democracy Institute, silent Trump supporters are likely more prevalent in 2020 than they were four years ago. Meanwhile, he said Biden supporters are far more likely to share their views with others.
“There’s no one for Biden who’s not happy to tell you they support him,” he said. “There’s tremendous openness about support for Biden, though there is low enthusiasm.”
“This has been the year of black swans”
Among those planning to cast a ballot for Trump, however, Basham said “there are some who are shy about saying they are for him.”
His organization’s latest poll builds on previous evidence, showing pro-Trump respondents are more likely to be strongly enthusiastic than those who support Biden — by a margin of 77% to 43%. All things considered, the poll forecasts a re-election victory for the president with 309 electoral votes to Biden’s 229.
U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has similarly warned her party that she fears Trump voters are being undercounted in many polls.
“Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars,” she said. “I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”
If nothing else, the results of this recent poll should give Trump’s supporters even more to be enthusiastic about ahead of Election Day.