The highly controversial Aug. 8 FBI raid of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, aside from being the latest effort to “get Trump,” was also likely intended to diminish Trump’s continued popularity and make it more difficult, if not impossible, for him to run for a second term in 2024.
In that, the raid appears to have failed, as a recent poll showed that Trump’s popularity among Republican voters actually improved slightly and he remains the odds-on favorite to easily win the GOP nomination in the next presidential cycle, Breitbart reported.
The seemingly politically motivated raid against Trump, as well as related federal persecution against his allies and supporters, also appears to have failed to substantially diminish the chances of Republicans reclaiming control of the House and/or Senate in November’s midterm elections.
Trump popularity improves slightly following FBI raid
TIPP Insights polled 1,145 registered voters between Sept. 7-9, one month after the FBI raid, and compared those results to a similar poll of 1,182 registered voters between Aug. 2-4, just a few days before the raid — both with a 2.9% margin of error — and found “little change” between the two surveys in terms of presidential primary preferences.
For Republicans, 53% had picked Trump as their preferred nominee in August just before the raid, and that figure has since improved slightly to 54% following the perceived partisan raid.
For Democrats, President Joe Biden enjoyed a modest boost over that period but retained only a relative portion of his own party’s support in comparison to the solid GOP support for his main Republican rival. Biden only had 30% support from Democrats in August, but now sits at 34% in September, according to the pollsters.
Limited, if any, impact on congressional midterm elections
The TIPP poll also asked voters about the midterm elections in November and found that Democrats had not received much of a boost to their chances to retain control of Congress in the aftermath of the Mar-a-Lago raid — in which the alleged crimes of Trump have been pinned on all Republicans who support him — though they did see some slight improvement.
In August, there was a 46% tie between Democrats and Republicans for which party should control Congress, with 8 percent undecided. In the September poll, Democrats inched up to 48% while Republicans held steady at 46% and undecideds declined to 6 percent.
Interestingly enough, however, the pollsters noted some underlying demographic results in the recent survey that should prove worrisome to Democrats, namely that women voters appeared to significantly support a future GOP Congress as well as substantial gains in support for the GOP among Hispanic voters, who Democrats have previously relied upon heavily to ensure electoral victory.
Trump still strong in other polls
Of course, this is just one poll that some will undoubtedly seek to dismiss, but its findings are likely not too far out of line with other recent polling, particularly those that deal with the most likely hypothetical 2024 race — a rematch between Biden and Trump.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump is still heavily favored to win the 2024 GOP nomination by around 28.6 points over his possible Republican competitors. As for the Biden vs. Trump presidential rematch, RCP showed Trump held a nearly 1-point lead over his successor, 45.3 to 44.4%.
And with regard to the midterm elections, the polling aggregator currently shows Democrats with only the slimmest of leads, 45.3 to 45%, over Republicans on the 2022 generic congressional ballot.