As Election Day approaches, pundits continue to devote a significant amount of time to analyzing the voting trends among Black Americans and other potentially decisive voting blocs.
Far less attention has been paid to Latino voters, however, and recent evidence suggests this could be a weak point for the campaign of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, as reported by Breitbart.
According to a recent poll, Biden does attract support from a majority of Latino respondents. Among vital swing states, however, his level of support is barely equal or less than that garnered by Democrats in previous elections.
Considering the potential this demographic has to shape November’s election, the latest polling numbers could spell trouble for Biden.
Even in the Latino Decisions survey, which is aligned with the Biden campaign, the nominee registered a 66-24 lead over President Donald Trump. Although that might be a commanding advantage, Biden’s numbers match those obtained by 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton and are lower than former President Barack Obama’s support ahead of both the 2008 and 2012 elections.
The poll was conducted between Aug. 7-15 and included 1,842 Latino respondents. Of that number, 1,488 were registered to vote.
News for the Biden camp is even more troubling when considering the results of four important swing states: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
An important demographic
Biden is slightly outperforming Clinton in both Arizona and North Carolina. Given the latter’s relatively small Latino population, such a distinction will not likely have a measurable impact on that state’s election results.
In Florida, however, Biden’s 55-41 lead over Trump is well below Clinton’s 62-35 advantage ahead of her victory in that state.
Similarly, respondents in Pennsylvania backed Biden over Trump by a 59-28 margin — significantly lower than Clinton’s 74-21 lead four years ago.
While it is unrealistic to predict that Trump will attract support from a majority of Latinos in November, the troubling trend for Biden could be enough to disrupt his plan to limit the current president to one term.