Poll: Americans believe Trump will be victorious in the election

 February 18, 2024

According to a new poll, more Americans believe that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 general election than believe that President Biden will win. 

The poll comes from the Economist and YouGov.

The pollster surveyed 1,671 U.S. Adult Citizens between Feb. 11 and Feb. 13, 2024. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll covered a wide variety of topics, but, here, we will focus on the 2024 general election questions.

Trump will win

Among the questions that pollsters asked participants is this:

Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election if Joe Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate?

This is certainly not your typical 2024 general election hypothetical. Rather, the pollster is asking the participant to put his or her personal preference aside and to evaluate the current state of the race for the presidency.

Participants were given three options: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and "Not sure." Trump came out on top with a 45% plurality. Biden came in second with 34%. And, "not sure" came in third with 21% of the vote.

In other words, it appears 45% are convinced that Trump will win the election, 34% are convinced that Biden will win, and 21% still believe that the election could go either way.

Something worth highlighting is that Trump received the overwhelming support of his party, namely 84%, whereas Biden only got 73% support from his party. Perhaps even more significant, though, is that Trump received from independents more support than Biden: 45% to 21%.

It's a tie

The pollster also asked the more typical question, that is, "If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump, 'Other,' 'Not sure,' 'I would not vote?'"

The result was a tie with both Biden and Trump receiving 44 percent of the vote. 6% went to "other," 4% to "Not sure," and 3% to "I would not vote."

Here, Trump, once again, won the support of the independents: 45% for Trump compared to 27% for Biden.

Currently, Real Clear Politics' poll aggregator has Trump beating Biden in the 2024 general election by, on average, 1.1 percentage points.

Although Trump, in recent months, has been beating Biden in the vast majority of hypothetical 2024 polls, there are some outliers - including one from Quinnipiac University that has Biden up by 6 percentage points - that have kept Trump from pulling away from Biden.

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