New poll shows Texas Gov. Abbott with solid lead over Democratic challenger O’Rourke

The longshot biannual goal of the Democratic Party to flip Texas from red to blue will most likely have to wait until the next election cycle to have any hope of potentially coming anywhere close to fruition based on recent polling data.

A recent survey of likely voters in Texas found that Gov. Greg Abbott (R) holds a solid lead over challenger Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (D), especially among certain key demographic groups, which will seemingly ensure that the Lone Star State will remain under GOP governance for the foreseeable future, Breitbart reported.

Abbott leads O’Rourke by comfortable margin

The University of Houston and Texas Southern University teamed up in 2021 to conduct a number of major surveys of the state’s population in a five-year project, one of which pertained to the 2022 statewide elections for governor, lt. governor, and attorney general.

That election survey was conducted between August 11-29 and involved 1,312 likely voters with a margin of error of around 2.7 percent, though it also lent weight to a slightly smaller subset of 1,012 “almost certain” voters who were even more highly motivated to participate in the upcoming elections than likely voters.

What the survey found was that Gov. Abbott held a 7-point lead over O’Rourke among likely voters, 49-42 percent, but the margin in favor of Abbott shot up to 12 points, 53-41 percent, among the “almost certain” voters.

Insightful demographic breakdowns

According to the racial breakdown of those surveyed, Abbott led O’Rourke 61-32 percent among White voters while the challenger led the governor 72-15 percent among Black voters. In a potential show of weakness, O’Rourke also led among Latino voters, but only by a margin of 51-38 percent.

The gender breakdown is even more alarming for O’Rourke and his backers, as Abbott holds a commanding 55-37 percent lead among men while the two candidates are tied at 45 percent among women voters.

When it comes to the breakdown by age, there is more good news for Abbott, as he leads among the more reliable older voting blocs of the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers (61-33 percent) and Generation X (51-40 percent) while O’Rourke is favored among the less reliable younger blocs of Millennials (55-34 percent) and Gen-Z (54-31 percent).

The real surprise in these results was evident in the partisan breakdown of the survey, as while both Abbott and O’Rourke drew similar 93 percent support among their respective parties, unaffiliated independent voters have shifted heavily in Abbott’s favor, 47-25 percent, though nearly a quarter of such independent voters remain unsure at this time about who they will support on Election Day.

All of the polls show Abbott with a lead

The seven- to twelve-point lead for Gov. Abbott in this survey appears to be directly in line with the combined average of polls for the Texas gubernatorial race as determined by RealClearPolitics.

The current RCP average, which includes this University of Houston poll, shows Abbott with a 7.2 percent lead over O’Rourke, 48.4 percent compared to 41.2 percent.

In all likelihood, O’Rourke will once again be rejected by Texas voters and Abbott will be picked to serve another term in office, and Texas will remain red while Democrats revisit the drawing board in their neverending quixotic effort to try and flip the solidly Republican state from red to blue.

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