Ken Paxton is pulling ahead of John Cornyn in the race for Texas's open Senate seat — and the gap isn't shrinking.
A new survey from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, shows Paxton commanding 38% of likely Republican primary voters to Cornyn's 31%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston sits a distant third at 17%, with 12% of respondents still undecided. Early voting starts Feb. 17 — just over a week away.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas leads state Rep. James Talarico by 8 points, 47% to 39%. The general election matchups, meanwhile, suggest the eventual Republican nominee won't matter much: both Paxton and Cornyn beat Crockett by 2 percentage points in head-to-head hypotheticals, and the survey found "little difference" in expected performance regardless of which candidates emerge.
Texas remains Texas.
What makes Paxton's lead notable isn't just the topline number. It's the breadth. According to the poll reported by the Texas Tribune, Paxton leads Cornyn across every key demographic group surveyed — with one exception. Cornyn edges Paxton among Latino voters by 7 percentage points in the Republican primary.
That's a real data point, but it's a narrow one. Paxton's advantage everywhere else — and the survey's indication that he'd hold a big advantage over both opponents in a potential runoff — paints the picture of a candidate whose base is locked in and whose ceiling hasn't been reached. Twelve percent undecided in a three-man race with early voting days away is real estate, and Paxton is positioned to claim it.
Previous polls had described this race as a dead heat. This one doesn't. A 7-point lead outside the margin of error — the poll carries a ±4.18-point margin — marks a genuine shift.
Crockett's 8-point lead over Talarico tracks with what you'd expect when one candidate simply owns the room. Ninety-two percent of respondents said they knew enough about Crockett to form an opinion, compared to 85% for Talarico. That 7-point awareness gap maps almost perfectly onto the 8-point vote gap. Democratic voters know Crockett, and they're picking her.
Talarico has his pockets. He leads among white voters and those with advanced degrees — the wine-track progressive coalition that runs strong in Austin and not many other places. But Crockett dominates among the voters Democrats need in a statewide Texas race. She carries 46% of likely Latino Democratic primary voters to Talarico's 37%, with 15% still unsure.
That's a problem for Talarico, who recently secured an endorsement from the state's largest Hispanic Democratic organization. Previous polls had shown him leading among Latino voters. The endorsement doesn't appear to be holding.
Here's the number that should keep Democratic strategists up at night: it doesn't matter who they nominate. Both Paxton and Cornyn beat Crockett by 2 points in hypothetical general election matchups. The survey even found Paxton could do slightly better than Cornyn against Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely general election voters remain unsure in those head-to-heads, but the structural reality of Texas hasn't moved.
Among the 1,502 likely general election voters polled — with a tighter ±2.53 margin of error — President Trump's approval sits at 49% to 50% disapproval. Majorities disapprove of his handling of foreign policy, the economy, international trade, and the cost of living. But 51% approve of his handling of immigration and border security, with 47% disapproving.
In Texas, immigration and the border aren't abstract policy debates. They're lived experience. That single issue keeps the floor firm under any Republican running statewide.
With early voting opening Feb. 17, the contours of both primaries are hardening fast. Twelve percent undecided on each side leaves room for movement but not transformation. Cornyn needs something to change the trajectory — and the poll offers him little to work with beyond his narrow advantage among Latino Republican voters. Hunt, at 17%, is running for a bronze medal or an exit ramp.
The real question isn't whether Paxton or Crockett wins their primaries. The polls — this one and the ones before it — have been trending in one direction for both. The real question is whether Democrats invest serious money in a Texas Senate race where their best candidate trails the Republican field by 2 points in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
The answer to that question tells you more about the national party's resource discipline than any poll can.
