Noem falls from Trump VP consideration, Burgum and Scott rise

By Jen Krausz on
 May 7, 2024

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (R) is reportedly no longer under consideration to be Donald Trump's running mate in 2024 after writing in a memoir that she shot her young dog for misbehavior, while North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott have risen higher on the list in recent days. 

Trump said he would pick his running mate closer to the Republican National Convention in July, and Republican lawmakers have said he will be "strategic" about his choice.

Scott seems to be the top choice of most lawmakers due to his loyalty to Trump after dropping out of the primary race and endorsing him. He also fits the diversity preference many in the party have, with the idea of attracting more minority voters.

Neither Scott nor Burgum is from a swing state, which is one mark against them.

What about Kari Lake?

Another candidate Trump has considered is Kari Lake, a rising GOP star who lost her gubernatorial race in Arizona, which is a swing state that could help him.

But Lake is probably not a top tier candidate anymore for several reasons: she can't let go of the governor's race any more than Trump can the 2020 one, she is struggling in her campaign to replace Sen. Kyrsten Simena (I), and her personality is too similar to Trump's and would detract from him.

Still, strategically, she is a woman from a swing state.

Trump has shown a lot of interest in Burgum, who has a moderate position on abortion and is a fellow billionaire.

Sadly, he doesn't fit the intersectional profile that up until now Republicans have largely rejected.

Dislike of Biden

Currently, Trump is three to five points ahead of President Joe Biden in most polls.

His selection of running mates is unlikely to change the polling much, since his personality is larger than life and will overshadow any of them.

In many elections, the Republican is five to 10 points behind the Democrat in polling at this point.

Often, the choice of running mate has injected excitement into the campaign, but this one is already at a fever pitch with all of the indictments Trump faces and the public's generally intense dislike of Biden.

The unique circumstance could make the choice of vice president less important than other years, but much remains to be seen in the six months until the election.

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