Although the Democratic Party appears to have control of the executive branch secured until 2024, the same cannot be said of Congress.
As one notable strategist recently explained, a number of factors are pointing to a blowout defeat for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections.
Democrats face uphill battle
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies based his prediction on an interpretation of current events and prior precedent, forecasting that Democrats could lose dozens of seats in the House of Representatives after the upcoming midterms.
Republicans lost 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms, two years into President Donald Trump’s term in office. As pundits argued at the time, voters cast their ballots in response to dissatisfaction with the direction the GOP had been taking the nation.
Now, Bolger is predicting that the Democratic Party stands to lose roughly the same number of seats — and for the same reason.
Among the signs he cited in his prediction was Biden’s sagging approval rating, which was 4.1 percentage points lower than his disapproval rating in a recent RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Of course, that factor is fairly conspicuous and has been the subject of various news reports in recent months. Bolger’s analysis went deeper, however, to explore some less obvious details.
Factors benefiting Republican candidates
For starters, Republicans have made “significant inroads” among several important voting blocs, with the notable exception of young adults. Given the typically low voter turnout by this group, however, Bolger opined that it might have little impact on the overall trajectory of Election Day results.
Furthermore, he noted that generic congressional matchups are effectively tied for the first time since 2015. If anything, some pollsters are giving GOP candidates a slight advantage.
In conclusion, Bolger prepared voters to expect a repeat of 2018 — albeit with the political parties reversed.
“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s deja vu all over again,” he asserted.
Assuming Democrats do lose 41 seats in the midterms, the GOP would be left with a 34-seat majority, which is considerably wider than the advantage Democrats currently have. With redistricting poised to help Republicans even further, it appears that a giant red wave could be on the horizon.