Michelle Obama polls ahead of Haley, gaining on Biden as health issues grow

 February 10, 2024

In the betting odds for the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump currently holds a commanding lead over all contenders, according to a RealClearPolitics average based on various betting websites.

As of February 9, Trump's prospects stand at a formidable 43.2 percent chance of reclaiming the presidency.

Trump rising, Obama too

Trailing behind him is the incumbent President Joe Biden, who occupies the second position with a comparatively lower chance of 29.3 percent.

Notably, former First Lady Michelle Obama has experienced a notable surge in popularity, vaulting into third place with an 8.8 percent likelihood of winning the election.

This surge marks a significant increase in her odds over the past month and positions her ahead of other contenders like Nikki Haley, who commands a 4.2 percent chance.

Other contenders

California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely behind in fourth place, boasting a 5.7 percent chance of clinching the presidency.

Vice President Kamala Harris trails with a 3.5 percent chance, while figures like Robbert F Kennedy Jr, Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin each hold a 1 percent chance of victory.

The decline in Haley's odds in January followed Trump's victory in the New Hampshire primary election, reflecting the impact of political developments on the perception of candidates among bettors.

Biden's decline

Biden witnessed a recent dip in his chances, dropping by approximately 3 percent between Thursday and Friday.

This decline coincided with the release of a report by special counsel Robert Hur, which addressed classified documents found in Biden's possession, including deleted materials by Biden's ghostwriter, though no charges were brought against him.

While the report refrained from recommending charges, it shed light on Biden's portrayal of himself as an elderly individual with memory issues during interviews, a factor that could potentially sway jurors and complicate efforts to secure a conviction for any alleged misconduct.

The gradual erosion of Biden's prospects for a second term has been evident since his peak in April, with Trump surging ahead in September. These fluctuations underscore the fluidity of the electoral landscape and the evolving perceptions of key candidates among both the electorate and the betting markets.

As the 2024 election cycle progresses, these dynamics are likely to continue changing, with growing speculation over the former first lady making a late jump into the presidential race despite past statements that she is not interested in politics.

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