Former Republican Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin is claiming that the state of New York may be up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election because of the "abuse" of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
He thinks the hush money trial is helping former President Donald Trump and that Trump can capitalize on public opinion that he is being railroaded.
“So when I ran in 2022, what I was saying was if I get less than 30% in New York City, I can’t win; if I get more than 35% in New York City, it becomes difficult to lose,” Zeldin said on Fox News on Thursday.
He thinks Trump could use the same math to campaign with different affinity groups that are already moving toward him as voters.
“President Trump can get inside of all these different communities over the course of the next several weeks and get his support up,” Zeldin said. “The Asian community, the Hispanic community, the Black community, and others are only moving towards him.”
Trump has said that he thinks Blacks in particular understand that law enforcement and the judicial system are targeting him because they don't like his candidacy.
“I think that’s why the black people are so much on my side now,” Trump said at a February campaign event in South Carolina. “Because they see what’s happening to me happens to them.”
Polls don't really support Zeldin's claims, at least nationwide. 83% of Blacks said that the charges against Trump were appropriate, and 12% said they would vote for him.
Zeldin also pointed to the impact of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the election.
“One additional point to add is that RFK Jr. is on the ballot,” Zeldin said. “When I ran in 2022, it was a head-to-head battle with Kathy Hochul. In 2024, with a Kennedy on the ballot as well, President Trump doesn’t even have to get to 30% in order to put New York state in play.”
Nationwide polling shows Trump winning both with and without Kennedy in the race.
With Kennedy in the race, Trump gets 44% to Biden's 40%, with 8% going to Kennedy. Without Kennedy, Trump has 46% and Biden 43%.
There is still plenty of time for those numbers to change, and I'm sure Democrats have lots of tricks up their sleeves.
But unless they replace Biden with a much better candidate before the election, the only real question is who will be more competent in leading the U.S. for the next four years. No matter how you look at it, that isn't Biden.
