CPAC has thrown its weight behind Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, with Chairman Matt Schlapp announcing the endorsement at the conference held just outside Dallas in Grapevine, Texas. A straw poll of Texas attendees wasn't even close: 67% backed Paxton compared to 21% for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, with 12% undecided.
Schlapp made it official from the stage.
"It's my honor … to say we officially endorse Ken Paxton."
He cited Paxton's "perfect CPAC voting record" and alignment with President Donald Trump on major political fights. Cornyn, meanwhile, skipped the gathering entirely.
The March 3 primary ended without a clear winner, sending Paxton and Cornyn into a late May runoff after neither secured a majority. But if CPAC is any barometer of where the conservative grassroots stand, Cornyn has a problem that no campaign adviser can spin away.
Hundreds of activists at the conference embraced Paxton as the GOP's clear pick, according to the Washington Examiner. He headlined events, worked the rope lines, posed for photos, took questions at meet-and-greets inside the Gaylord Texan, and spoke at CPAC's Ronald Reagan dinner in Dallas on Friday night. The energy wasn't manufactured. It was organic, and it was lopsided.
Attendee after attendee made clear what's driving the divide. Matthew Kingston, 26, of Lubbock, put it bluntly:
"After Uvalde, Cornyn chose to side with Democrats on gun control. That was the turning point for me. It showed he's willing to compromise on core Second Amendment rights."
Michael Reaud, a 55-year-old boutique owner, said he's been in Paxton's corner for years. On Cornyn, his memory was sharp and unforgiving: "As far as John Cornyn, if I remember correctly, I think he's gone against President Trump on a few things."
Anne Diaz, a 64-year-old retiree from Georgetown, didn't need persuading either. "I just have a feeling that Ken Paxton is honest and conservative," she said, adding that even a Trump endorsement of Cornyn wouldn't change her mind.
That's the kind of loyalty that doesn't bend with the wind.
Paxton used his platform at CPAC to hammer the issue that has become central to his campaign: election integrity. Speaking to the crowd, he zeroed in on mail-in ballots:
"Mail-in ballots … they send them out by the millions, and we have no idea who's voting."
"That shouldn't be the way it is. We should know who's voting. They can vote however they want, but we should verify who they are, that they are citizens, and that they are following our laws."
The SAVE Act, a proposal that would impose stricter proof-of-citizenship requirements for voting, is a top priority for the president. It has stalled in the Senate. Paxton has blasted Cornyn over the impasse and suggested he would consider stepping aside in the race if the measure became law.
Days after the issue gained traction, Cornyn shifted course, signaling openness to altering Senate rules and writing in an op-ed that he would support whatever changes were needed to move the legislation forward. The timing was not subtle. When a 20-year Senate veteran suddenly discovers urgency on a bill his base has demanded for months, the conversion tells you more about the pressure than the principle.
The Cornyn camp isn't sitting still. Campaign adviser Matt Mackowiak offered a statement to the Washington Examiner that leaned heavily on the senator's voting record:
"Senator Cornyn has voted with President Trump 99.3% of the time and is one of his most effective allies in the Senate. He has consistently delivered on conservative priorities, from confirming judges to advancing border security, and has the experience to be effective on day one."
That 99.3% figure is designed to neutralize the MAGA loyalty question. But for many grassroots conservatives, the 0.7% is exactly where the betrayals live. The gun control vote after Uvalde. The dragging of feet on the SAVE Act. The sense that Cornyn's instinct, when the pressure mounts, is to find the bipartisan middle rather than hold the line.
A voting percentage doesn't capture those moments. The base remembers them anyway.
NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez offered a different angle, one aimed squarely at electability:
"When President Trump needed him most, Ken Paxton repeatedly went AWOL. John Cornyn is the best candidate to beat radical James Talarico and hold this seat for Republicans. This race isn't just about the primary, it's about winning in November."
The November question is real, and it's the one card Cornyn's allies keep playing. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico awaits the runoff winner, and a Democratic-aligned survey reportedly found Talarico narrowly leading both Republican candidates in hypothetical matchups.
Sen. Ted Cruz, who is staying neutral in the primary, acknowledged the stakes in an interview with the Washington Examiner:
"The voters of Texas can make the choice who they trust to go and fight for their conservative values."
But Cruz didn't hide his concern about what comes after.
"Regardless of who wins the nomination, the two candidates have attacked each other relentlessly, and the hard Left is really energized. We've got a fight on our hands for November."
That's a fair warning. But it also cuts both ways. If the Republican establishment forces a candidate on a base that doesn't want him, the enthusiasm gap in November could be just as dangerous as any Democratic surge. Nominees who excite nobody tend to lose races they should win.
Paxton's opponents will never stop reminding voters that he was impeached by the Texas legislature three years ago on corruption charges. What they mention less often: he was acquitted. Paxton addressed it directly at CPAC, framing the episode as a fight he never backed down from.
"The people of Texas had just elected me. I had won overwhelmingly. This is wrong. We're going to fight this."
"I am not going to resign. I don't care what happens. We are going to fight this. Whatever happens, happens."
His supporters view the impeachment as political persecution. His critics call it disqualifying baggage. The CPAC crowd made clear which interpretation they've adopted.
There's also the personal dimension. His wife, Angela Paxton, recently filed for divorce, citing infidelity. One attendee, Trimaan Malik, a 30-year-old from Las Vegas wearing a "#TeamAngela" shirt, offered a dissenting take: "I prefer attorneys general who are not always in scandals every five minutes." He then added, "I don't even live in Texas. I don't have a dog in the fight."
Fair enough. But the people who do live in Texas and who showed up to CPAC made their preferences unmistakable.
The wild card remains President Trump, who said weeks ago he would weigh in on the race with an endorsement but has yet to follow through. Some attendees, like Reaud, said they'd follow the president wherever he lands: "I'll support President Trump, whatever his decisions are."
Others, like Diaz, have already made up their minds regardless. That split is instructive. A Trump endorsement of Cornyn might consolidate some reluctant supporters, but CPAC suggests the grassroots energy is already flowing in one direction. Redirecting it would take more than a Truth Social post.
Not every attendee had made up their mind. Xavier Heim, a commercial airline pilot from Grapevine, said he's still weighing his options: "We thought we knew, and then we got some more information, and we're doing our research." Molly Sawyer, a flight attendant also from Grapevine, said she's evaluating both candidates on their track records and electability.
But the undecided were the minority at this conference. The decisions were loud, they were organized, and they were wearing Paxton stickers.
Paxton closed his CPAC appearance with a line that distilled his entire pitch:
"It's about the people of Texas wanting somebody that is going to represent them. Let's get rid of the guy that represents Washington, and let's put somebody in that represents Texas."
That framing is familiar because it works. The outsider versus the institution. The fighter versus the dealmaker. It's the same energy that reshaped the Republican Party over the last decade, and it's the energy that filled the Gaylord Texan this weekend.
Cornyn has the Senate infrastructure, the NRSC backing, and two decades of incumbency. Paxton has the room. In a late May runoff where turnout is everything, the candidate whose supporters actually show up tends to win.
CPAC just showed us who's showing up.
