House Speaker Mike Johnson’s already razor-thin grip on the Republican majority just got squeezed even tighter with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation.
With Greene stepping down on Jan. 5, 2026, after a public rift with President Donald Trump, Johnson now faces a House split of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, leaving him with almost no wiggle room to push through Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda.
This shrinking majority means potential gridlock on critical issues like tax cuts, which could delay much-needed financial relief by months or even years. From a conservative standpoint, this also heightens the risk of stalled investigations into progressive overreach, as every vote counts to hold the line against a creeping liberal agenda.
Greene’s departure wasn’t a sudden whim; she announced her resignation back in November 2025, marking the end of her tenure early this year.
Once a staunch Trump ally, her transition to critic after a falling out with the president has left many in the MAGA base scratching their heads. How do you go from cheerleader to contrarian in such a short span?
Regardless, her exit leaves Johnson in a bind, able to lose only two Republican votes on party-line issues if he hopes to pass anything without begging for Democrat scraps.
Let’s rewind a bit—at the start of the 119th Congress, Johnson was already dealing with the slimmest House majority in nearly 100 years, a partisan split of 219 to 215.
That tight margin came after former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida chose not to return, setting the stage for a nail-biter of a session. Historically, you’d have to go back to the Great Depression era’s 72nd Congress to find margins this close, when Republicans held a mere 217 to 216 edge over Democrats.
Even then, deaths and special elections flipped control, proving how fragile these numbers can be—a lesson Johnson might want to tattoo on his forearm.
Looking ahead, the GOP’s majority could shrink even more with a special election in Texas at the end of January 2026, where two Democrats are set to face off in a runoff.
Another special election in April 2026 for a New Jersey seat, vacated by former Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill after she is elected governor, could also shift the balance. Johnson’s breathing room, already microscopic, might vanish entirely if these seats flip.
For congressional Republicans, every vote is a high-stakes poker game, and they’ve already shown they can’t afford dissent, as seen when Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania broke ranks on Trump’s major tax and spending cuts package in July 2025.
Passing that tax package was a rare win, but losing two GOP votes on final passage showed just how precarious unity is within the party. With a magic number of 218 votes needed to pass bills when all seats are filled, a single tie spells failure.
Johnson’s speakership itself was secured by a hair, winning with a 219 to 215 majority, meaning even one defection could have derailed his gavel. Vacancies from deaths and resignations have shifted the breakdown multiple times since the session began, keeping everyone on edge.
