Generic polls raise concerns for Republicans

Generic polls continue to suggest that Republicans are not exactly running away with the midterm elections, as was originally predicted.

In recent months, the GOP’s lead over Democrats in generic polls has slipped, and, now, Real Clear Politics has Democrats in the lead for the generic congressional vote. 

Real Clear Politics, aggregating recent polling data, has Democrats in the lead on the generic congressional ballot by .1%, 44.6% to 44.5%.

This, admittedly, is an extremely narrow margin. But, the troubling thing is that the Democrats are this close at all. It wasn’t too long ago when Republicans were expected to win the midterm elections easily, but now – if polling data can be trusted – the Democrats appear to have a legitimate chance at maintaining their control over Congress.

The good news

There are signs that the Republicans have managed to plug the leak concerning generic congressional polls.

Several recent polls have Republicans maintaining their lead on the generic congressional ballot.

One of the most recent ones comes from Rasmussen Reports. The pollster found that Republicans currently have a five percentage point lead – 47% to 42% – over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

Similarly, another recent poll from the Trafalgar Group has Republicans with a six percentage point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 47.2% to 41.4%.

Looking ahead

We are now roughly two months away from the consequential midterm elections, which will decide whether Republicans will take control over Congress and put a stop to President Joe Biden’s extremist agenda or whether the Democrats will maintain control over Congress and ram more of that extreme agenda through.

It does seem likely that Republicans will win control of the House. But, the Senate is a different story.

FiveThirtyEight’s latest models have Republicans “favored” to win the House, by a margin of 76% to 24%, but they have Democrats “slightly favored” to win the Senate, 68% to 32%.

Whereas Republicans need to pick up a handful of seats in order to win back the U.S. House of Representatives, they need to pick up fewer to win the Senate, which is currently tied 50 to 50 with the tie-breaking vote going to Vice President Kamala Harris.

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