Gavin Newsom could realistically soon be recalled, new poll says

A new poll could spell very bad news for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

According to Breitbart, the poll reveals that just about as many California voters favor Newsom’s recall as those who oppose it. 

The numbers

The poll was conducted by YouGov on behalf of CBS News earlier in August. A “representative sample of 1,856 California adult residents” participated in the survey, and the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus four percentage points, an important data point in this particular situation.

What the pollster found was that 48% of voters favor Newsom’s recall, while 52% oppose it. The four-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting that Newsom is in real danger of losing the governor’s mansion.

The poll also found that conservative radio host Larry Elder leads the field of candidates looking to take Newsom’s potentially vacated seat, with 23% of the vote.

The field of candidates vying to replace Newsom currently consists of some 46 individuals. The next most popular candidate to replace Newsom, behind Elder, is real estate YouTuber Kevin Paggrath, who received 13% of the vote. Interestingly, 25% of voters are “undecided.”

Newsom’s time is up?

Newsom is currently facing a recall election after wildly popular recall groups managed to gather far more than the 1.5 million signatures required to trigger such an election.

What this means is that California voters will soon be able to vote on whether or not to remove Newsom from office. If the voters decide to do so, they will be able to vote on a replacement, and that replacement only needs a plurality to win, which means that Elder has a legitimate chance if Newsom is, in fact, recalled.

Democrats have been pooling all of their resources behind Newsom in an effort to keep him in office. President Joe Biden recently pleaded with voters not to recall Newsom, and Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are expected to up the ante of their support for Newsom as the recall election nears.

What are the chances?

The bad news for Newsom is that the CBS News/YouGov poll is one of many that have suggested that there is a legitimate chance that he will be recalled. Other surveys that point to similar possibilities come from Emerson College and SurveyUSA.

CBS News has suggested that whether or not Newsom will be recalled will depend on voter turnout, which could certainly be a factor given the resurgence of COVID-19, thanks to the delta variant causing a spike in cases.

“Newsom’s political fate would clearly be in better shape if all registered voters turned out next month. But as of now, they don’t all plan to vote,” the outlet reported. “In fact, it’s members of his own Democratic Party who are currently less motivated than Republicans to vote, setting up a high-stakes turnout and motivation contest for Newsom and the Democrats over the next month.”

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