Joe Biden has plunged in popularity among election gamblers.
On the latest PredictIt.com odds boards, Elizabeth Warren is now the slight favorite over Biden to win the Democrats’ White House nomination in 2020.
Prediction Markets Over Polls
As most people found out during the 2016 presidential elections, political polls are not really worth all that much. Just as any numbers can be manipulated in a study to get the desired results, so can polls.
First, there is generally only a very small number of people polled. Does any given sample of 1,500 people really represent all of America?
Second, in many of today’s polls, there are significantly more Democrats being polled than Republicans. While they make the “popular” candidate in the media look good, they are simply not fair polls.
One of the more recent polls that was released had Biden crushing Trump in the election. Then, on the last page of the poll — the methodology that nobody reads — it revealed that roughly 65% of the people polled were Democrats!
Exactly what results did they expect to get with that kind of bias?
Prediction markets like PredictIt.com offer a much better sample because participation is not limited. You have a much wider sample of participants, and they are people who are actually paying attention to the political landscape.
The Human Gaffe Machine
The media has been downplaying all the gaffes that have been made by Biden, but they are clearly starting to take a toll.
He has one too many slip-ups in his speeches, and people are just no longer willing to simply forgive him.
Add that to the recent mistake he made thinking was vice president in 2018, and people are starting to wonder if Biden would be better off in a retirement home than the White House.
While Biden is clearly winning in the polls, it looks like his lead may be slipping — and fast.