The Washington Examiner’s Cami Mondeaux just published a report explaining why it will be an “uphill battle” for the Democrats to maintain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2024 elections.
In other words, Mondeaux is essentially explaining why, even this early, the Republicans are favored to take the Senate in 2024.
The Dems’ 2024 problem
The essential problem for the Senate Democrats, according to Mondeaux, is that, in the 2024 elections, they are going to have to defend twice as many seats as their Republican counterparts.
Indeed, in the 2024 elections, 34 Senate seats will be up for the taking. And, of those 34 seats, 22 are held by Democrats compared to just 11 that are held by Republicans.
Of course, those figures only add up to 33, not 34. The remaining seat that will be up for grabs belongs to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and the reason she is separate from the rest is that Sinema has recently announced that she is leaving the Democratic party to become an Independent.
Americans are told that we have only two choices – Democrat or Republican – and that we must subscribe wholesale to policy views the parties hold, views that have been pulled further and further toward the extremes. Most Arizonans believe this is a false choice, and when I ran for the U.S. House and the Senate, I promised Arizonans something different.
It remains unclear whether or not Sinema will still caucus with the Democrats. At the very least, Sinema has made it clear that she will not be caucusing with the Senate Republicans.
The “uphill battle”
According to Mondeaux, the problem for the Democrats isn’t just that they have so many more Senate seats up for grabs than the Republicans in 2024.
Mondeaux reports, “making things more challenging, a handful of Democrats will also be fighting for reelection in reliably red states — giving Republicans a chance to flip some crucial seats.”
There will also be several swing state Senate seats available in 2024, including in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And, although the Democrats, themselves, will have some opportunities to pick up some seats, Mondeaux explains why this is unlikely to happen.
Democrats do have some pickup opportunities in Florida and Texas that have become lighter shades of red in recent years. However, the incumbents in those states, Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), benefit from national name recognition and somewhat high favorability ratings among the party.
The important point to make is that just because the opportunity is there for the Republicans doesn’t mean that they will take the opportunity.
We all saw what happened in this year’s midterm elections.
The Republicans definitely have some problems to fix between now and 2024. But, the good news is that if the Republicans do address these problems, then the opportunity to have a strong showing in 2024 will be available.