Democrats were already facing an uphill battle to retain their slim majorities in Congress in the 2022 midterm elections due to redistricting and historical trends that favor Republicans this time around.
But according to a once-prominent Democratic consultant who previously worked for Bill Clinton, it is President Joe Biden’s poor performance and plummeting poll numbers that could ultimately be the nail in the coffin for Dems as they seek to maintain their grip on power on Capitol Hill.
According to Breitbart, that Democratic consultant is Douglas Schoen, who served as a top adviser to then-President Clinton and later, worked briefly for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg during his 2020 presidential primary campaign.
“Decline in support”
In a recent op-ed for The Hill, Schoen said Dems could see “a blowout defeat” in 2022 — and if that’s the case, he said, they’d have the man in the White House to blame.
“The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections,” Schoen wrote for The Hill.
“Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010,” he added.
More bad news for Dems
Schoen also noted recent polling, which he said paints a bad picture for Biden compared to the last two Democratic presidents.
And the writer has a point: Biden has dropped precipitously in recent approval polls, as evidenced by the RealClearPolitics average that currently shows the president with a net approval of -4.1 percentage points.
In addition to the shoddy numbers, Schoen also pointed out that the 1994 and 2010 losses for Democrats in midterms immediately followed them passing massive spending bills with little or no GOP support — which is exactly what Biden’s Democrats are furiously rushing to do right now on the topic of “infrastructure.”
A look ahead
Factor all of that in with historical trends that suggest the party out of power will take it back in the first midterms after a presidential race, and Republicans could be in for a celebration come November 2022, Schoen argues.
“Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim — and it could get even worse,” he wrote for The Hill.
“If the Biden administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy,” Schoen added, “Democrats could suffer the most substantial midterm loss of any party in recent history.”