House Democrats announced articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump on Tuesday, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a trial in the Senate to consider his removal. That’s assuming Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) can wrangle together a majority of her caucus to pass the articles.
But it’s highly unlikely that the president will be removed by the Senate. So far, no Republican senators have said they would vote to convict Trump. And the Democrat minority can’t count on being able to unite all of its members to vote for conviction.
Some Democrats could vote against conviction
A number of red-state and swing-state Democrats are staying awfully quiet about how they’d vote on impeachment, Breitbart reported. Most notably, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), reportedly has yet to make a decision on whether or not he’d support the effort to remove President Trump from office.
In an emailed statement to Breitbart, Manchin spokeswoman Katey McCutcheon said of the moderate senator, “He hasn’t made up his mind and he’s waiting on the articles to come to the Senate.”
The media outlet sent out a request for comment to a handful of other Democratic senators in states Trump won in 2016, including Sens. Doug Jones (AL), Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).
None of the offices for those senators responded to Breitbart on where they stood with regard to impeachment.
Acquittal almost guaranteed in Senate
Should there be a trial in the Senate, Democrats would need to obtain two-thirds support from all senators present in order to achieve a conviction and removal of President Trump.
Assuming all 100 senators take part in the trial and vote, that means 67 would be necessary to oust the president. Given that there are only 47 Democrats in the Senate, that would mean at least 20 Republicans would need to cross the aisle and vote against the leader of their party and the country.
If, as appears possible, a few Democrats like Manchin and Sinema, among others like Jones, Peters, and Shaheen — who all face tough elections in 2020 — decide to vote against conviction, that would raise the bar even higher for Democrats to coax even more Republicans to vote against Trump, a virtual impossibility.
Will House pass impeachment?
Granted, this question on how certain Democrat senators will vote following an impeachment trial may ultimately be a moot point, as it isn’t a given that Pelosi will be able to pass articles of impeachment out of the House, given the growing rumblings of discontent and frustration among moderate and swing-district Democrats with pro-Trump constituents who may vote against impeachment in favor of retaining their seats in Congress.
A few House Democrats from Trump districts are considering a censure option over impeachment, arguing that it would be more likely to win some Republican support and would avoid a long Senate trial, Politico reported on Tuesday.
Everything is up in the air at the moment and the only thing that remains certain is that President Donald Trump will fight back with everything he’s got.