Conventional wisdom, historical trends, and even congressional redistricting have all indicated a strong likelihood that Republicans will regain control of the U.S. House in the upcoming midterm elections.
Yet, while a Democratic loss of the House seems to be a foregone conclusion, a new analysis suggests that Democrats could also be facing an impending “disaster” in terms of its current nominal control of the U.S. Senate, Hot Air’s John Sexton reported.
GOP taking Senate, too?
Sexton highlighted a recent report on liberal journalist Matt Yglesias’ “Slow Boring” Substack site by liberal guest author Simon Bazelon, who presented facts and statistics to back up his warning that “Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster” that will not be prevented — and arguably could be made worse — but “business as usual” for the Democratic Party.
Bazelon first looked at the national average for “generic ballot” poll questions compiled by FiveThirtyEight which shows Republicans with a slight advantage over Democrats of just more than 2 percentage points.
Discounting undecided voters from those generic ballot polls and factoring in the usual liberal bias of most polls, it was determined that Democrats will likely obtain somewhere between 47-48% of total votes cast, and even that may be an overestimation of how Democrats will perform in the November elections.
Dems face huge problems
Those estimations suggest that Republicans will win overall by about 4.5%, which when combined with the fact that President Joe Biden won in 2020 by an average of 4.5%, means there has been an approximately 9 percentage point swing in ideological alignment ahead of the next election cycle.
What that means in terms of the Senate is that any Democratic senator up for election in a state that Biden won by fewer than 9% are likely looking at a loss to their GOP challengers in November.
That includes Sens. Mark Kelly (AZ), Raphael Warnock (GA), Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV), and Maggie Hassan (NH).
Assuming that holds true, the next term for the Senate could feature a 54–46 split in favor of a Republican majority, but the bad news didn’t end there, as Bazelon carried on those assumptions with an eye toward 2024, which already didn’t look good for Democrats, and denoted another six Democratic senators that appeared more likely to lose than win re-election in that forthcoming cycle.
In other words, and considering different scenarios of vote shares obtained by Democrats, in the most optimistic best-case Democrats could have as many as 44 senators after the 2024 election while the worst-case scenario shows Democrats holding as few as 38 seats in the Senate.
Bazelon is not alone in sounding the alarm for Senate Democrats with regard to the next two election cycles, as even the far-left Democratic cheerleaders at the Daily Kos recently published a terrifying warning aimed at the Democratic establishment with respect to how it was “running out of time” to address its rather dismal future outlook in the Senate.
That leftist analysis had independently reached a similar conclusion on the likelihood of lost seats and Republican control going forward — perhaps even a GOP “supermajority” for the remainder of the decade — and argued that the Democratic establishment should focus far more on defending seats, even those it doesn’t necessarily view as vulnerable, instead of pouring precious resources into the lost cause of trying to flip Republican-held seats in any state that isn’t solidly blue.