According to historical trends and current circumstances, Democrats are facing tough prospects with regard to maintaining the party’s slim majority control in the House of Representatives.
Democrats’ prospects appear particularly grim in Iowa, as there doesn’t appear to be any Democratic candidate willing to take on either of the one-term incumbent Republicans, even as those districts used to vote reliably for Democrats, Breitbart reported.
In fact, unless someone competitive steps up in the near future, it looks as though Democrats have written off Iowa as a lost cause.
No Democratic challengers
That assessment is derived from a recent Associated Press report that looked closely at the prospects for Democrats to retake Iowa’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts, both of which were won by Republicans in 2020 with exceptionally slim margins and, in theory, would be prime targets for the Democratic Party to try and take back.
Yet, as the report noted, “So far, no Democrat has stepped up to run.”
In the 2nd District, Rep. Marianne Miller-Meeks (R-IA) won with just six votes over Democratic incumbent Rita Hart, who unsuccessfully challenged those results and even sought intervention from the Democrat-controlled House to overturn the results and reinstate her in Congress. While it had been expected that Hart would immediately announce a 2022 rematch to reclaim her seat, she has yet to do so.
In the 1st District, Rep. Ashley Hinson defeated one-term Democratic incumbent Abby Finkenauer last November and, much like with Hart, Finkenauer has defied expectations by also not yet announcing any intention to try and retake that seat in the next election cycle.
“Past the point of no return”
The AP noted that national Democrats and even some local activists expect competitive candidates to eventually emerge in both of those districts. Yet, a number of state-level Democrats have acknowledged that the party’s once-firm grip on several different parts of the state have been greatly diminished in recent years.
In fact, a former Democratic state senator who served for eight years before being ousted last year, Rich Taylor, bluntly surmised that “I kind of think we’re past the point of no return,” at least in terms of Democrats holding significant electoral power in the state for the next decade or two.
If that assessment is true, then the once battleground state of Iowa with strong bastions of undisputed Democratic control may be red state in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.
Republicans predicted to retake House
Meanwhile, the political analysts at FiveThirtyEight recently reached a consensus that Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House from the Democrats in 2022, though opinions were mixed on what will happen with the Senate and it was deemed a toss-up that could go either way.
The reasons for their prediction included the historical trend of the “out party” not in the White House gaining control of Congress in midterm elections, upcoming redistricting that would be more favorable for Republicans nationally, and potential difficulties for Democrats in defending President Joe Biden’s agenda. Factor in the apparent admission that Iowa has been lost by Democrats, and the odds just grew even great that Republicans will regain power.