The murder rate is dropping fast under President Trump, with one crime analyst predicting that 2025 could see a record low.
“Since President Trump took office, murder rates have plummeted across the entire United States,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement Tuesday.
“American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law.”
According to analyst Jeff Asher, the murder rate has already fallen 20% this year.
In a SubStack post, Asher argued that it's possible 2025's numbers will represent a record low since 1960, when reliable FBI data first became available.
The current record low was in 2014 when there were 4.45 recorded murders per 100,000. In 2020, the murder rate rose sharply to 6.83 per 100,000 as racial unrest swept the nation.
The most recent FBI data, from 2023, shows the murder rate dropping 12% to 5.75 per 100,000. Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which compiles crime data from hundreds of agencies, found the murder rate falling another 14% in 2024.
Assuming that figure is accurate, then the murder rate in 2024 would be 4.97 per 100,000, which is roughly in line with pre-2020 levels and only slightly higher than 2014's low of 4.46 per 100,000.
“[I]t’s fairly clear that a decline in the direction we’re currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded," Asher wrote on Substack.
While it's still early in the year, and crime data is always incomplete, we're looking at the "lowest rate ever recorded" if the decline holds steady, Asher noted.
An additional drop of 10% would be sufficient to tie the old record. Meanwhile, the Gun Violence Archive has murder dropping by 14%, while the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) has murder falling by over 20% through February.
Some of the deadliest cities have seen starker declines: according to local police data, murder has fallen in Baltimore and New Orleans by 24% and 25%, respectively.
“Good policy fosters good outcomes,” FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson said Tuesday. “Under this administration’s leadership, our federal law enforcement teams are receiving the tools and support they need to crush violent crime and keep the American people safe, and that’s exactly what they’re doing. We have much more to do, but let good cops be cops, and the results will follow."
