As we close in on Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead in the polls appears to be quickly collapsing.
Crunching the numbers
Starting with the national numbers, the IBD/TIPP poll, taken Oct. 26–30, currently has Biden with a roughly five-point lead on President Trump. Biden is polling at 49.5% nationwide, while the president sits at 44.7%, as the New York Post reported Saturday.
The margins are even slimmer in battleground states, where Biden had only a three-point lead, which is within the margin of error, the Post notes.
The poll also shows that President Trump is doing well with two key demographics: Trump garnered the support of 12.8% of Black voters surveyed by IBD/TIPP late last month, while a full 47.9% of Hispanic voters sided with the president.
In 2016, Trump won the support of just 8% of Black voters.
“A race to watch”
As the Post noted in its Saturday report, at this point back in 2016, when most other surveys had Hillary Clinton easily beating Trump, the IBD/TIPP poll had Clinton with only a one-point lead over the now-president. In other words, the IBD/TIPP poll was one of the most accurate last time around.
“The IBD/TIPP poll goes where the data directs it, which is why it has been so successful over time,” Raghavan Mayur, the president of the market intelligence group TechnoMetrica, told the pollster in its latest report.
Will they be right again? Only time will tell, according to Mayur. “Right now, data suggests a significant number of votes are still in play, and factors like COVID-19, economic stimulus, and mail-in voting could have a real impact. This is a race to watch,” he said.
“The radical left is going down!”
Of course, at the end of the day, it’s not the popular vote that matters. Although Trump appears to be trailing in that regard, he may still be able to clinch a win where it counts: in the Electoral College.
The University of Southern California recently released its non-traditional Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which also accurately forecasted the 2016 election — and now, it is predicting another Electoral College victory for the president. It seems even Trump himself has taken notice of the good news.
Our numbers are looking VERY good all over. Sleepy Joe is already beginning to pull out of certain states. The Radical Left is going down!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020