Analysis of House Democrat retirements suggests GOP could flip at least 10 seats to take majority control

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) Democrats stand poised to suffer substantial defeats and lose their slim House majority in Congress in the November midterm elections, and Republicans appear to have multiple paths to take in ensuring that happens.

One of those tracks doesn’t even really require much effort from the GOP, as the large number of retirements announced by House Democrats could prove sufficient by itself to flip control of Congress from blue to red, Breitbart reported.

It is worth remembering that House Republicans need to net only a five-seat gain to take control, and a recent analysis of the retirements suggests that at least 10 of the seats currently occupied by retiring Democrats appear ripe for being flipped.

At least 30 House Democrats announce retirement plans … so far

Axios has been keeping close tabs on the retirement announcements from House members and, as of mid-February, that number stood at 30 Democrats not running for re-election in November compared to just 14 Republicans who have made similar announcements.

Of those 30 House Democrats, it appears that 22 are retiring from politics altogether while the remaining eight are seeking a different office at the state level or in the U.S. Senate. For the Republicans, the 14 retirements were split in half with seven of them launching campaigns for another elected office.

The outlet noted that, at least for the Democrats, the high number of retirements appeared to be driven by President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval ratings and uncertainty over the redistricting process that favors Republicans. Left unstated, but almost certainly a factor for some, is a desire to not be relegated to the minority position in the next term, should the GOP win back majority control.

GOP has the opportunity to flip at least 10 retiring Democratic seats

Yet, while Axios has simply tracked the retirement announcements, the left-leaning Punchbowl News, which is typically focused on all things Capitol Hill, conducted its in-depth analysis of what those Democratic retirements possibly signal in advance of this year’s midterm elections.

“We found that of the 30 retirements, 10 seats represent strong pickup opportunities for Republicans while another three could be GOP pickups in a wave election. Remember: Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to gain control of the House,” the outlet stated.

The analysis further noted that, in addition to the 10 “strong” opportunities and three “ambitious” targeted seats, there were another three Democratic retirements due solely to their districts being redrawn together with another Democrat-held district, and while those combined seats will likely remain in Democratic hands, the redistricting will result no matter what is at least one less seat for the party going forward.

Polling data shows voters favor Republicans over Democrats

Meanwhile, more bad news for Democrats was delivered by a recent survey by Emerson Polling of 1,138 registered voters between Feb. 19-20, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

On the question of voter motivation, which tends to forecast voter turnout, Republicans were beating Democrats in that poll by a score of 79-65 percent. Making matters worse, young voters, who tend to favor Democrats, were at 57 percent in terms of being motivated to vote, while voters over 50, who tend to favor Republicans, were motivated at a rate of 80 percent to participate in the next election.

Then there is the generic ballot question, which simply asks respondents which party they intend to vote for in the next contest. Republicans again prevailed over Democrats in that poll, 50-41 percent, with 9 percent still undecided — ominous numbers for Democrats who, typically, maintain a lead in the generic ballot regardless of how an election ultimately turns out.

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