Andrew Rice, a deputy commonwealth's attorney in Virginia Beach, crushed Democrat Cheryl Smith in the special election for Virginia House of Delegates District 98, capturing 62.46 percent of the vote to Smith's 37.5 percent with more than 11,000 votes counted as of 1 a.m. Eastern.
The margin wasn't close. It was a blowout.
The seat became vacant after Republican Barry Knight died last month, triggering a special election to cover the last two years of his term. When that seat was last contested in 2025, Knight won with 56.6 percent, and Smith took 43.2 percent. Rice didn't just hold the seat. He widened the gap by nearly six points against the same Democratic opponent.
Rice addressed supporters after the race was called:
"I'm so thankful for their support and I can't wait to get to work for them in Richmond."
Democrats have spent months constructing a narrative around special elections. After picking up 13 seats in the Virginia House during the November 2025 elections, the story practically wrote itself: voters were recoiling from Republicans, the political winds had shifted, and the party was riding an unstoppable wave into the 2026 midterms.
District 98 just punched a hole in that storyline, Newsweek reported.
Voter turnout in the district hit only 18 percent, with more than 11,700 ballots cast. Low-turnout special elections are often where enthusiasm shows itself most clearly. The voters who bothered to show up chose the Republican by a commanding margin, in a race where Democrats had every reason to believe the environment favored them.
Virginia wasn't the only bright spot. In Pennsylvania, Republican Catherine Wallen is projected to beat Democrat Todd Crawley in a special election for the state's 193rd House District, according to Decision Desk HQ. That seat has been represented by a Republican since 1972, so the hold itself isn't surprising. But in a cycle where Democrats have been claiming the political landscape is shifting beneath Republican feet, holding ground matters.
Republican State Leadership Committee President Edith Jorge-Tuñón framed the results in no uncertain terms:
"Last night's results shatter Democrats' so-called 'special election momentum.' In states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, voters rejected the claim that Democrats have a better handle on the issues that matter most and pushed back on the failed policies they continue to champion. These wins prove Republicans can break through and compete in tough environments, and the RSLC is building momentum to win nationwide in 2026."
There is a familiar pattern in how media and political operatives treat special elections. When Democrats win them, the results are treated as referendums on the national mood, bellwethers of what's to come, proof that the public has rendered its verdict. When Republicans win them, the caveats arrive immediately: low turnout, local dynamics, district composition, the usual disclaimers.
Republicans themselves have rightly noted that these races have never been predictive of general elections. That's fair. But what's also fair is applying the same standard in both directions. If Democratic special election wins were evidence of a national backlash during President Donald Trump's second term, then Republican wins in the same cycle deserve the same interpretive weight.
You don't get to cherry-pick which results count.
The next major test comes in California, where the seat left vacant by Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa, who died in January at age 65, will be filled through an election set by California Governor Gavin Newsom. A primary is scheduled for June 2, with the general election on August 4. California's 1st Congressional District presents a different kind of battleground, but the results in Virginia and Pennsylvania give Republicans evidence that their voters are engaged and willing to show up even in off-cycle contests.
The November 2026 midterms remain the prize. Democrats will continue to spin their preferred narrative, and the media will continue to amplify it. But narratives don't survive contact with actual vote totals.
In District 98, the voters spoke clearly. Andrew Rice won by nearly 25 points. No amount of "momentum" talk changes that math.
