Could a single Supreme Court decision hand Republicans the keys to the U.S. House in 2026?
A pivotal case, Louisiana v. Callais, challenging Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, might reshape congressional maps across the South and potentially net the GOP nine or more seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
During oral arguments two months ago, a majority of the conservative Supreme Court justices signaled skepticism about race-based congressional districts, a practice rooted in Section 2’s protections against voting discrimination based on race or color.
This provision has historically led to majority-minority districts, often benefiting Democrats in Republican-leaning states with significant Black populations.
If struck down, as many as 30 districts with high Black voter populations—over half in red states—could be redrawn, directly threatening Democratic strongholds.
Analysis from Nate Cohn of The New York Times suggests that scrapping these districts might cut Democratic-held seats in the South from 24 to half that number, with nine direct pickups for the GOP.
With the GOP clinging to a slim 220-213 House majority, and only a three-vote buffer for Speaker Mike Johnson on partisan issues, every seat counts—especially with historical midterm losses looming for the party holding the White House.
President Trump has urged GOP-led states to seize the moment with mid-decade redistricting, like Texas’ new maps that could add five Republican seats, while allies eye similar moves in Florida.
Democrats aren’t sitting idle—California voters recently passed a ballot measure to redraw maps in a way that could offset Texas’ gains by bolstering Democratic seats.
Still, there’s risk even for Republicans; eliminating these districts might create moderate swing seats that could flip to centrist Democrats in a strong blue wave, diluting the GOP’s hoped-for edge.
“If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik’s caution is well-placed, but let’s be real—Democrats like Rep. Cleo Fields of Louisiana, whose redrawn 6th District is at the heart of this case, might soon find their political maps looking more like a Jackson Pollock painting than a safe seat.
Others, like Rep. Troy Carter of Louisiana, Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, and Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, face similar threats as state Republicans could reconfigure districts if Section 2 falls, while Reps. Steve Cohen of Tennessee, Shomari Figures and Terri Sewell of Alabama, and Wesley Bell of Missouri are also on the chopping block.
“The Voting Rights Act is not a relic; it is a living promise that our democracy belongs to everyone,” stressed Rep. Troy Carter after oral arguments—a noble sentiment, though conservatives might argue it’s been stretched to prioritize partisan advantage over fair representation.
