A new poll shows that Sen. John Cornyn is losing ground in his reelection campaign, The Hill reported. The Texas Republican is trailing behind the state's Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican Senate primary by 22 points.
Republican pollster Robert Blizzard conducted the poll for the Educational Freedom Institute. It showed that Paxton is leading incumbent Cornyn by double digits in the primary that will be held in February 2026.
Most tellingly, those who consider themselves "MAGA" and older voters are choosing Paxton over Cornyn. While the incumbent has dismissed these results as part of the "silly season" for political polling, the fact is that voters are trending toward Paxton.
A GOP strategist said this means Cornyn will have to be more aggressive. "I think those numbers today are going to force Cornyn to go up on air and take a chunk out of Ken Paxton pretty damn soon. The question is, can he?" the strategist said.
Despite the troubling poll numbers, Cornyn's allies are hopeful that the long lead time until the primaries will give him time to turn the tide. "The primary is in nine months," Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Cornyn’s campaign, pointed out.
"This is going to be a very close race, and Sen. Cornyn is fully committed to winning it," Mackowiak added. Others are burying their heads in the sand, hoping that the early polling is an anomaly as their only strategy.
"Cornyn’s folks are right, it is silly season for polling. But he definitely has an uphill battle," acknowledged Paxton supporter and Republican donor Dan Eberhart.
If Cornyn hopes to disrupt Paxton's momentum, his campaign will have to define the candidate and his opposition. "I think they’re going to have to spend a lot of money early to try and make their case given where we are in the polling right out of the gate," said Brenan Steinhauser, Cornyn's former campaign manager.
That's exactly what the senator's campaign attempted to do last week when it debuted ads charging Paxton with "funding the left." However, Cornyn will also have to contend with voters' very real and accurate impression that he is a RINO candidate.
The problem for Cornyn isn't just that Paxton is gaining ground. In fact, the reason he has made such headway is in part because of Cornyn's record of betraying staunchly conservative GOP voters and those who support Trump, considering he didn't support his reelection bid in 2024.
In 2022, Cornyn signed on to the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act in the wake of the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas. It was the kind of legislation that is hastily thrown together in the wake of a tragedy to strip law-abiding citizens of gun rights.
According to Fox News, the law imposed waiting periods and allowed for weapons to be confiscated under so-called red flag laws. Gun rights groups, including the Gun Owners of America, believe that Cornyn betrayed Second Amendment enthusiasts.
"Every time gun control gains steam in Congress, Senator John Cornyn is right there working with Democrats on a 'compromise.' That isn't conservative leadership, it's capitulation," GOA Federal Affairs Director Aidan Johnston charged.
Cornyn made the mistake of opposing Trump and going along with the Democrats' gun grab. While it's too early to tell how the primary election will shake out, there's no doubt Cornyn will eventually pay the price for it.
