Political analyst Nate Silver sees a positive trend in approval ratings for President Donald Trump, Newsweek reported. Silver found that Trump has received a rebound in his numbers after gaining four points since last month.
Silver has a solid reputation for reading the tea leaves in politics. His track record suffered a hiccup when he predicted a close race in 2024 with then-Vice President Kamala Harris, whom he favored.
That prediction was smashed to bits with Trump's runaway victory in both the Electoral College and popular vote. Still, Silver's methods are proven, which makes the good news he's sharing about Trump all the more encouraging.
Trump continues his slow rebound in the Silver Bulletin average. pic.twitter.com/yXfLd1Tanq
— Eli McKown-Dawson (@emckowndawson) May 20, 2025
In Silver's Substack called the Silver Bulletin, the statistician broke down the positive trend. His caveats included how difficult it is to pinpoint Trump's favorability in polls, but noted the upward trend.
In recent polls, Trump is showing a shift back to favorability. "His net approval rating in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll (-8) is up three points from where it was for the last two weeks (-11)," the post's co-author and fellow Silver Bulletin election analyst Eli McKown-Dawson wrote.
"And his approval rating is holding steady in the YouGov/Economist poll (-9 this week vs. -10 last week). The latest RMG Research poll — admittedly a firm with a strong Republican house effect — has Trump above water with a +4 net approval rating (it was tied in their poll last week)," the analysis went on, noting an across-the-board improvement.
"RMG also shows much higher approval for Trump’s handling of tariffs (net -1) than most other polls. As a result of these polls, Donald Trump’s net approval rating is up to -5.8 in the Silver Bulletin average," the post explained.
"That’s the highest it’s been since April 22nd, and up almost 4 points from Trump’s second term approval low-point on April 29th. Now, this could just be noise driven by a dearth of new polls," McKown-Dawson warned, "or it could be a reversal of the downward trend we’ve seen since the start of Trump’s term. We’ll have to wait for more data to find out," McKown-Dawson concluded.
Trump experienced a dip in his approval ratings after taking office, as is expected for most presidents. However, seeing a rebound son soon could indicate good things to come based on the policies he's feverishly implementing.
For instance, the president's approval numbers have remained positive for most of his second term on the immigration issue, but still dipped slightly. After reaching a second-term low of -2.3% on the issue on April 22, 2025, Trump now enjoys a 3.3% approval in polling averages.
Other issues like trade, the economy, and inflation all experienced a steady decline but have recently rebounded for the president. While implementing tariffs temporarily made his approval dip, other moves promise to help lift his numbers even more.
According to Fox News, Trump's recent trip to the Middle East yielded $2 trillion in investments for the U.S. from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. There is also talk of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia that could be forthcoming.
There were so many times when Trump was counted out of the political arena, including his initial approval slippage. However, like he's done for the past 10 years, Trump continues to reemerge triumphant each time he's thought to be finished, and his supporters love him all the more for it.
