Poll shows 2024 Cheney run would siphon support away from Biden, not Trump

After getting absolutely walloped in Wyoming’s primary election, outspoken anti-Trump Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) has entertained and not dismissed speculative rumors that she might launch a 2024 presidential bid intended specifically to deny former President Donald Trump another term in the White House.

However, a recent poll strongly suggested that an independent Cheney run in 2024 would likely backfire and actually ensure a second term for Trump as she would instead steal support away from incumbent President Joe Biden, Breitbart reported.

That is hugely significant since the poll otherwise showed that Biden would most likely prevail over Trump if the 2024 election turned out to be a simple rematch of 2020 without any major independent or third-party candidates involved.

Biden vs. Trump or Biden vs. Trump vs. Cheney

The poll in question was conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov and included 1,563 U.S. adults surveyed between August 18-22, and which noted up front that solid majorities said that neither Biden (62 percent) nor Trump (58 percent) should run for a second term in 2024.

If, however, the 2024 election was a Biden vs. Trump rematch, the current president would defeat the former president by a margin of 42-39 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

That said, were Cheney to launch an independent campaign for the presidency, it appears that nearly all of the 11 percent support she would garner would be siphoned away from Biden, as his support would plummet from 42 percent to 29 percent while Trump’s support would drop from 39 percent to 37 percent and the undecideds would increase from 20 percent to 23 percent.

Nearly all support would come from Biden voters and not from Trump

Breitbart pointed out that the demographic breakdown on those two questions confirmed that Cheney would overwhelming draw support from independents as well as Democrats who would otherwise support Biden.

Indeed, in a straight Biden vs. Trump race, the poll showed that Biden would have the support of 87 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of independents. Trump, meanwhile, would have 85 percent support from Republicans and 39 percent from independents.

With Cheney in the race, though, Biden’s support among Democrats and independents would fall to 66 percent and 18 percent, respectively, while Trump’s support among Republicans and independents would hold relatively steady at 80 percent and 38 percent, respectively.

Cheney’s 11 percent total support would include 12 percent of Democrats, 13 percent of independents, and only 7 percent of her own fellow Republicans.

2024 bid is “something that I am thinking about”

Rep. Cheney has not officially announced a 2024 presidential bid, but she has hinted at it and her acolytes in the media are pushing it and, for what it is worth, Cheney already established an anti-Trump political action committee that could probably be fairly easily converted into a presidential campaign at some future date, according to NBC News.

As for her thinly disguised presidential ambitions, Cheney was asked about that during a post-election interview, and though she initially attempted to dodge the question, she did not deny it and ultimately said, “That’s a decision that I’m going to make in the coming months, and I’m not going to make any announcements here this morning — but it is something that I am thinking about.”

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